IUPU Fort Wayne

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	245.0
Current RPI:	245
Expected SOS:	310
Current SOS:	310
Current Record:	14-17
Expected Record:	14-17
Current Conf Record:	8-10
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	273
Expected OOC SOS:	344

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-17	245.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for IUPU Fort Wayne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	A	61-50	L	0%
11-16	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	N	97-94	W	100%
11-17	Eastern Michigan (239.0)	MAC	A	60-47	L	0%
11-18	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	N	68-67	L	0%
11-24	Dartmouth (294.0)	Ivy	A	66-70	W	100%
11-28	Navy (308.0)	Pat	A	54-49	L	0%
12-1	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	H	57-56	W	100%
12-5	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	63-52	L	0%
12-8	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	74-64	L	0%
12-17	Notre Dame (35.0)	BE	A	74-62	L	0%
12-21	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	70-47	W	100%
12-27	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	88-74	L	0%
12-29	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	62-50	L	0%
1-2	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	68-63	W	100%
1-5	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	96-78	W	100%
1-10	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	67-55	L	0%
1-12	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	83-57	L	0%
1-17	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	H	62-60	W	100%
1-19	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	59-63	L	0%
1-24	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	H	40-43	L	0%
1-26	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	80-79	W	100%
1-31	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	86-79	L	0%
2-7	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	74-80	L	0%
2-9	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	54-58	L	0%
2-14	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	60-65	W	100%
2-16	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	51-64	W	100%
2-20	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	77-71	W	100%
2-23	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	H	88-75	W	100%
3-2	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	72-74	W	100%
3-10	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	N	72-91	W	100%
3-11	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	72-56	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

IUPU Fort Wayne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

IUPU Fort Wayne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against IUPU Fort Wayne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	26.53	26.53	47.33	47.33	-1.42	-1.42
South Dakota St.	Sum	5.76	5.76	67.86	67.86	2.06	2.06
Oakland	Sum	5.70	5.70	51.85	51.85	0.21	0.21
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.28	4.28	68.97	68.97	1.63	1.63
IUPUI	Sum	4.22	4.22	10.71	10.71	-3.32	-3.32
Western Illinois	Sum	4.22	4.22	69.23	69.23	1.62	1.62
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.15	4.15	20.69	20.69	-2.43	-2.43
South Dakota	Sum	4.14	4.14	30.77	30.77	-1.59	-1.59
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.12	4.12	33.33	33.33	-1.37	-1.37
Navy	Pat	3.23	3.23	21.43	21.43	-1.84	-1.84
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.83	1.83	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Bowling Green	MAC	1.77	1.77	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.75	1.75	33.33	33.33	-0.58	-0.58
Valparaiso	Horz	1.75	1.75	77.42	77.42	0.96	0.96
Miami OH	MAC	1.75	1.75	27.59	27.59	-0.78	-0.78
Texas Pan American	GWC	1.72	1.72	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Notre Dame	BE	1.64	1.64	72.73	72.73	0.75	0.75
Drake	MVC	1.64	1.64	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.64	1.64	10.34	10.34	-1.30	-1.30
Auburn	SEC	1.61	1.61	25.81	25.81	-0.78	-0.78
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.61	1.61	30.77	30.77	-0.62	-0.62
Ball St.	MAC	0.27	0.27	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.27	0.27	25.00	25.00	-0.14	-0.14
Morehead St.	OVC	0.27	0.27	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.26	0.26	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.24	0.24	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.24	0.24	13.79	13.79	-0.17	-0.17
Utah Valley	GWC	0.22	0.22	35.71	35.71	-0.06	-0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.21	0.21	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Western Michigan	MAC	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.21	0.21	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.21	0.21	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.20	0.20	28.00	28.00	-0.09	-0.09
Bucknell	Pat	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
Buffalo	MAC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.19	0.19	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.19	0.19	80.65	80.65	0.11	0.11
Murray St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.14	0.14	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.13	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
American	Pat	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.08	0.08	18.18	18.18	-0.05	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.08	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00